New Chinese Demographic Data =
by Peter Zeihan on June 29, 2023
Today we're breaking down the new demographic data from the Chinese space. This will allow us to make some much-needed updates to an already bleak assessment...and spoiler alert, it's going to get a lot worse.
The first graph shows us the demographic picture before any of this new data were released. You'll notice China already has an incredibly fast-aging population. The number of people entering the workforce can't keep up with retirees, so even when using the old data, labor costs were increasing faster than any country in history.
The second graph shows us what the new data are saying. The number of children under age five has collapsed, leaving China with nearly half the amount of five-year-olds as fifteen-year-olds. This happened well before COVID drove down birth rates and increased death rates. Even though this is the "official" Chinese data, it's likely overly optimistic.
So that brings us to our internal extrapolation of the data as seen in graph three. Again this is our interpretation, but it gives you a better look at the Chinese predicament. Leaks out of China suggest the yellow bars don’t even exist; this means China isn't a country in demographic decay...its a country in the advanced stages of demographic collapse.
China is entering its final decade of operating as a modern industrialized nation. For any foreign business still in China, those sunk costs on factories can only keep you there for so long...and it will only get worse from here on out.
Please click below to watch video
New to the newsletter?
Want to re-read an article or share it with a friend?
Want Peter to speak at your next event?
Click below to submit a speaking inquiry
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The buttons below will direct you to our purchase pages where you can both find out a bit more about each book, as well as select purchase options ranging from e-services to your local bookstore.
follow me on socials
To make sure you get our emails, please add our email address to your saved contacts or Whitelist.
Copyright (C) 2023 Zeihan on Geopolitics. All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe